Israel fears Iran: On the 30th of Shahrivar, 1404, corresponding to September 20, 2025, the Islamic Republic of Iran commenced a massive, multi-domain military exercise that sent shockwaves far beyond its own borders. Dubbed “Payambar-e Azam-16” (The Great Prophet-16), the drill was unprecedented in its scale and the sophistication of the weaponry displayed.
Anatomy of the Exercise: A Display of Unprecedented Firepower
While officially described as a routine test of defensive readiness, its timing and content were a clear strategic message aimed at a single audience: the Zionist regime occupying al-Quds.
The explicit simulation of long-range ballistic missile strikes on targets meticulously designed to mimic Israeli military infrastructure, including the Dimona nuclear facility, was not just posturing; it was a vivid demonstration of capability and intent.
This event has fundamentally altered the regional security calculus, providing tangible evidence that Israel fears Iran and the credible military threat it now represents.
This article will dissect the components of this formidable exercise and analyze the profound reaction it has elicited from Israeli military and political establishments, underscoring a new reality where the hunter has become the hunted.
The “Payambar-e Azam-16” exercise was a comprehensive demonstration of Iran’s indigenous military technology, spanning land, sea, air, and cyber domains. Its most alarming aspect for adversaries was the seamless integration of these capabilities into a unified strategic threat.
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Ballistic Missile Barrage: The cornerstone of the exercise was the launch of over a dozen different types of ballistic missiles. This included the new “Kheibar-Shekan” medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), celebrated for its accuracy and ability to evade advanced air defence systems due to its low radar signature and manoeuvring re-entry vehicle (MaRV). The successful strike on a mock-up of the Dimona complex from a distance of over 1,200 kilometres was a calculated and unambiguous message: no target in Israel is beyond reach.
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Drone Swarm Warfare: The exercise featured massive swarms of long-range suicide drones, such as the Shahed-136 and newer, more advanced models. These low-cost, high-impact weapons represent a asymmetric nightmare for any air defence network, designed to saturate and overwhelm the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems, clearing the path for more powerful missiles.
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Naval and Anti-Access Capabilities: In the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) demonstrated its doctrine of asymmetric naval warfare. Exercises included swarm attacks by fast attack craft, underwater drone operations, and the launch of advanced anti-ship cruise missiles like the “Qader” and “Ghadir.” This served a dual purpose: reminding global powers of Iran’s ability to threaten world oil markets and showcasing the means to disrupt potential support for Israel via maritime routes.
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Cyber and Electronic Warfare: While less visible, Iranian officials emphasized the role of cyber-attack and electronic warfare units in paralysing the command, control, and communication (C3) systems of a simulated advanced adversary. This capability directly threatens the technological backbone of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).
This coordinated display was not a bluff. It was a live-fire proof of concept for Iran’s long-stated doctrine of deterrence and, if necessary, massive retaliation.
It is this tangible proof that fuels the understanding that Israel fears Iran’s evolving and maturing military arsenal.
The Israeli Reaction: From Public Braggadocio to Private Anxiety
The official public response from the Israeli government was characteristically defiant. Prime Minister and Defence Minister issued statements dismissing the exercises as “theatrical performances” and vowing that the IDF was prepared to strike back with unimaginable force against any aggression.
The long-standing doctrine of the “Begin Doctrine”—pre-emptive strikes against existential threats—was reaffirmed.
However, beneath this veneer of confidence, reports from Israeli intelligence and defence analysts revealed a far more concerned establishment.
The gap between public dismissal and private assessment is where the truth resides: Israel fears Iran’s precise missile capabilities more than it admits.
The Israeli media, particularly outlets like Haaretz and Yedioth Ahronoth, cited unnamed military officials expressing deep concern over the numbers and accuracy of the missiles shown.
The simulation of a coordinated strike involving dozens of missiles and drones from multiple vectors presents a “multi-layered challenge” that no air defence system in the world, no matter how advanced, can guarantee to stop entirely.
A single successful strike on a strategic target like Dimona or a major population center would be catastrophic. This vulnerability is the core reason why Israel fears Iran’s relentless military advancement.
Historical Context: The Inversion of a Power Dynamic
For decades, the regional military dynamic was defined by Israeli conventional superiority and its unchallenged monopoly on nuclear weapons.
Its air force could strike anywhere in the region with near impunity, as demonstrated by operations in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007 and repeatedly thereafter). The threat was unidirectional: from Israel to its neighbours.
Iran’s decades-long investment in a strategic deterrent program has fundamentally inverted this dynamic.
The development of a massive ballistic missile arsenal, coupled with proxy networks on Israel’s borders (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza), has created a situation where Israel now faces a capable and determined adversary that can respond directly to any attack.
The exercise on September 20th was the boldest declaration yet that this inversion is complete. It is no longer about whether Iran can be deterred; it is about Israel being deterred.
This historic shift explains why the deep-seated strategic assessment is that Israel fears Iran not out of weakness, but out of a rational calculation of a newly established balance of power.
The Nuclear Shadow: The Unspoken Core of the Deterrence Equation
While the recent exercise showcased conventional weapons, the spectre of Iran’s nuclear program loomed over every missile launch. The simulated strike on Dimona was profoundly symbolic.
It signaled that if Israel’s suspected nuclear arsenal is ever used, Iran possesses the conventional means to deliver a devastating response against the very facilities that create those weapons.
Furthermore, Western intelligence agencies believe Iran has mastered the technical knowledge to produce a nuclear device if it chooses to weaponize its program.
The ballistic missiles tested are the perfect delivery vehicles for such a weapon. This potential, however dormant it may be, adds an unbearable layer of risk to any Israeli calculation for a pre-emptive strike.
The exercise was a reminder that a military attack on Iran could accelerate a crisis towards an unthinkable nuclear escalation.
Therefore, the ultimate reason Israel fears Iran is the looming possibility that the current conventional deterrent could, in a crisis, become a nuclear one.
This existential stakes game is what paralyzes Israeli strategists and makes the display of Iranian missile prowess so terrifyingly effective.
Regional Repercussions and the Axis of Resistance
The exercise was also a powerful message to Iran’s allies and proxies within the “Axis of Resistance.” By demonstrating such formidable long-range strike capabilities, Iran solidifies its position as the patron and leader of this coalition.
For Hezbollah which already possesses an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles Iran’s ability to directly engage Israel provides a powerful umbrella, potentially allowing its Lebanese partner to operate with greater confidence.
This strengthens the concept of a “multi-front war,” a primary nightmare for Israeli military planners. An Israeli confrontation with Hezbollah or Hamas could now risk triggering a direct and devastating Iranian response from afar, a scenario that was far less credible a decade ago.
The message to the Gulf Arab states, particularly those who have normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, was equally stark:
the military balance of power is real, and Iran remains the region’s indispensable power. The demonstration made it clear that Israel fears Iran’s reach, a fact that must be calculated into the diplomatic and security considerations of every state in the region.
Conclusion: A New and Enduring Reality
The military exercise on September 20, 2025, was a watershed moment. It moved the discourse from hypothetical Iranian capabilities to demonstrated, integrated, and credible ones.
It proved that Iran can translate its ideological hostility into a concrete military threat that can directly target the Israeli homeland with high precision.
The days of Israel acting as the region’s unchallenged military hegemon are over. It has been replaced by a fragile and dangerous balance of terror, reminiscent of the Cold War, where both sides possess the means to inflict unacceptable damage on the other.
In this new reality, calculated deterrence replaces the possibility of easy aggression. The boastful statements from Tel Aviv cannot mask the intense deliberations now happening in its war rooms.
The evidence presented was too clear, the capabilities too real, and the simulations too accurate to ignore.
The seismic event in the Persian Gulf on that day proved, beyond any reasonable doubt, that Israel fears Iran, and that this fear is now a permanent and defining feature of the Middle Eastern security landscape. The era of Iranian vulnerability is over; the era of mutual deterrence has begun.
source: raialkhalij