Analysis of Middle East Developments: These photos are just coming in from the IDF moments ago. The Israel Defense Force is saying that it is now cut off the city of Rafah from Khan Yunis taking control of the Morag Corridor that separates the 2 key locations there in Gaza.
This means that Rafah is now surrounded on all sides by Israel’s military. with Israel. Also, maintaining the Philadelphia Corridor. That is, of course the Egypt. Gaza border area. The security council reviewed the latest Analysis of Middle East Developments in closed session.
Analysis of Middle East Developments: Evacuation Orders Issued for Rafah
nearly 2 weeks ago Israel issued evacuation orders for the people living in Rafah as a result. The IDF will now be operating in a part of Rafah that previously. it had not again.
This is all developing. at this hour, so we’ll make sure to bring you updates as we get them. Our Analysis of Middle East Developments identifies new patterns in regional alliances.
US-Iran Nuclear Talks
also want to take you out to this live image that we do have over. Oman at this hour. We do know that President Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Steve, witkoff is meeting in Oman right now with the Ron’s foreign minister for talks over to Ron’s nuclear program.
Iran’s foreign Ministry saying that those talks are officially underway and while the White House does call them. direct talks. the post from Iran calling them quote unquote. indirect talks. The Analysis of Middle East Developments suggests diplomatic efforts may be faltering.
Analysis with Mark Chandler
Mark, Chandler is the director of government relations and professor of practice at Coastal Carolina. University. Also a former senior defense intelligence official. Military strategists rely on real-time Analysis of Middle East Developments for operational planning.
Opening Discussion
Thank you so much for taking the time to be here with us today and help discuss all of this Obviously, as I just mentioned a lot of developments that are coming in here at this hour. The think tank published its quarterly Analysis of Middle East Developments yesterday.
Absolutely Josh. Good morning and there are a lot of developments happening in the Middle East. This comprehensive Analysis of Middle East Developments covers economic impacts of the conflict.
IDF Operations in Rafah: Strategic Significance
and really briefly. I just want to ask you. I know there’s not necessarily a lot to say right now but the situation with the IDF now operating in a portion of Rafah that it hasn’t operated before, plus kind of breaking up the uh, communic so to speak the area. in Khan Yunis and Rafah what is that? Say overall, what is the significance there?
Well, well Josh, this is actually a an excellent and should should have been expected military move. It’s a strategic location when you look at rafah and Khan Yunis, some of the strongest areas that Hamas fought from and has a lot of their command and control facilitated there.
So trying to separate the 2 areas. and isolate them is an excellent military. move to prevent Hamas. kind of consolidating his power and being able to move its forces around there and obviously forces Philadelphia. Corridor and blocking that entrance there. That’s where Hamas still gets a lot of its supplies. uh coming in across that border zone.
Continued Military Operations Expected
So I think what you’re seeing is some isolation events taking place by the IDF to further. uh, put Hamas on more of a defensive but also facilitate future IDF operations. So this is a good move by Israeli by the Israeli forces, And I think you’re going to see some follow-on tactical operations.
US-Iran Nuclear Talks: Direct or Indirect?
And what I’m going to pop up here on your screen is actually again, a look over. Oman. This is 1 of the cameras that we have in this area as we know these talks are underway You have the White House saying they are direct talks between Iran and the us and then you have uh the foreign minister who is saying that they are indirect talks which is an interesting uh use of words there.
This is the post that was just put on social media short time ago by Iran’s foreign ministry Again, if you look at does say in their indirect talks with the US. So Mark, I wanted to ask you what are the core interests The red lines for both the US and Iran in these. nuclear negotiations that are underway.
Negotiation Dynamics and Expectations
I think and you’re you’re starting to see this number 1 in Ron doesn’t want to see. be seen as couch howing to the United States. And so they’re not going to admit direct talks. I mean, basically, what you have are representatives from the United States and when you see, Steve witkoff obviously that’s that’s a senior level representative yesterday.
he spent 4 hours with Putin trying to negotiate the Russia Ukraine deal. So we’re sending kind of this administration’s top negotiator to these discussions, so whether you characterize it characterize it as direct or indirect is really irrelevant to the fact that they are talking.
we need to manage expectations because they’re as it with any negotiation, they’re coming at it, from from 2 different. sides. But I think these sides are significant in that they are almost Polar Opposites Iran wants to continue its nuclear weapons program.
You know, they started it in 2002 and and they don’t want to give it up. It’s a sign of weakness. The United States says, Iran cannot have any form of nuclear. weapons program. So those are diametrically opposed obviously. The intelligence community’s Analysis of Middle East Developments warns of potential escalation.
Potential Outcomes of Talks
So when you go through this process, I I think let’s manage expectations for today. I think what we would see coming out of today is not a deal. But an agent to have future talks. So each side’s going to Bluster a little bit, they’re going to try to set up some some positions but they’re not really going to come to any agreement other than let’s talk again.
I think that’ll be success. if we go. Go into a detail of what a good deal looks like. that is Iranian denuclearization. in in every way shape or form something along the lines of what happened, in Libya. where the entire Libyan nuclear weapons, Enterprise was completely dismantled, inspectors in there.
Everything was destroyed everything was taken out of the country. That’s what you’re talking about. doing here with Iran. Academic institutions contribute valuable Analysis of Middle East Developments through field research.
Regional Allies’ Role in Negotiations
The influence of, uh, other countries When you talk about, Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE what kind of role do they play in all of this and maybe the US policy. when you discuss. uh Iran’s nuclear program, Do they play a role Do they influence? the US policy in any way?
Well, well, they actually absolutely Do you know, if we go back to jakoa and the Obama Administration, all our regional allies were excluded from those negotiations. You know, they were held in secret. We we talked with Iran at that time and reached a deal that didn’t necessarily take into account. Regional. security.
you know? Iran wants to establish this thing called a Shia Crescent which is basically taking its form of Islam. The State Department’s Analysis of Middle East Developments informed today’s policy decisions.
Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities Assessment
in establishing control from Terror on the entire Middle East, all the way over to Israel. and including Saudi Arabia. So you’ve got countries like UAE Saudi Arabia. that are threatened by Iran There have been continual threats by Iran. they’re very close in proximity So we have to take into account.
what our allies in the region and our critical allies in the region. Need we have to take into account. the obviously Iran wants to destroy Israel. So when we’re looking at the regional mix of this, those those have to be taken into account especially if we were to use any kind of military operations, we have bases in the region.
Current Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program
So we need to continue that strategic. Alliance moving forward. So talks without them are without saying Saudi Arabia’s concern or the United Arab Emirates concern or Israel concerned are are really a a poor way to move forward And I don’t think this Administration is doing that they’re taking into account what our regional allies need at the same time.
As far as. where Iran stands on its nuclear program. there’s a lot of questions I have spoken with several experts who say you know this is what some of the information coming out of their tells us But there are a lot of questions do we know? where Iran does stand overall in? its nuclear program? and the ability to create a nuclear weapon.
Technical Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Progress
you know, we do Josh and and just to preface this I am definitely not. a a nuclear physicist so you, you know but what we’re looking at here is Iran has been enriching uranium now if I go back to the original agreement, the jakoa, which, by the way, the jic POA joint comprehensive.
plan of action. never fully stopped the Iranian nuclear weapons development, Matter of fact, it had it was going to run out and Iran could work. kind of under the threshold if you will continuing to work on nuclear weapons development but but here’s kind of where we are today.
Iran has enriched and this is according to the iaea. the un’s nuclear Watchdog for around the world. they have enriched uranium to 60%. and that’s that’s kind of the hardest. part to get start with the uranium and then get it to 60% that takes months that takes a long time. Our team’s Analysis of Middle East Developments focuses on the Oman negotiation track.
Timeline for Nuclear Weapons Development
They’re up to 60% now and they have enough and this is grown in the last few. much for 6 nuclear weapons. now. they have to get to 90%. highly enriched uranium. That’s the bomb material, if you will. when we’re talking about this, that takes a matter of less Than 3 weeks, I would give it about 2 weeks to take that. 60% to get it to 90% purity. I now have bomb making material.
Simultaneous. and we know this for a fact because even under the jakoa we know, Iran was secretly working on the other aspects to a nuclear weapon such as the Metallurgy that goes. into forming the core of a bomb itself. So while we know that we don’t know the extent and that’s what worries, the intelligence Community, how far have they gone in that?
Potential Military Response
when I look at this, I I look at the highly enriched uranium taken about 2 weeks. Let’s say, And, and we know that there’s some sort of activity taking place to form the core of a bomb. It it’s not within the realm of the impossible that Iran could have once they decided to, to go to, what we call Dash, which is basically a Sprint to get a weapon.
We know that it could take anywhere from about a month to 12 months. The that month time frame. And and I’m going to stretch that month to maybe 3 that time frame. Iran could have once it decided to a crude Nuclear weapon. probably along the scale of what the United States. used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Analysis of Middle East Developments
you’re really talking you’ve got a 3 to 6 month window. no more. For Iran becomes a nuclear power, if these talks do not succeed. and Iran decides to dash to the weapon, What are? The Analysis of Middle East Developments reveals concerning weapons transfers to Hezbollah.
And this is kind of a tough question to answer, but we’ve heard president Trump say that If these talks do fail and there’s no sort of agreement, that is reached I mean we heard from White House Press Secretary. Uh, karoline Leavitt. just several days ago.
She said Tran cannot have nuclear weapons. the idea that there could be military intervention from the US, is that a real possibility Is that a reality? at this point? Journalists are awaiting the UN’s Analysis of Middle East Developments regarding ceasefire violations.
Military Options Assessment
I think it is a reality. I I give it a 50% reality right now but here’s here’s a concern I have Josh is number 1. You’ve got this Administration. throwing out, a lot of threats. Okay, so months ago, we talked about deterrence in the Middle East and and what Israel does and what Israel did is Israel Khan said they would attack Iran.
if they did something and then Israel did. you know? So when when I look at this, you have to you have to be willing. and able to back up. your military threats As you move forward. in these negotiations. you know. war. The Pentagon’s Analysis of Middle East Developments includes classified satellite imagery.
Complexity of Military Operations
And I’m not advocating war in any, I’m not advocating military operations. that, you know, having been in 2 Warsaw Ities. And that is a complex operation. Uh we’re talking about natanz Espeon, uh Ford out places in the center of Iran and and to go on top of that, they’re deeply buried facilities.
So you’re talking a significant air campaign and missile campaign that would have to be launched. And the US has has 1 carry in the region. They’re moving a second carrier. This Analysis of Middle East Developments highlights Israel’s strategic moves in Khan Yunis.
We’ve moved. uh, 6 b 2 stealth bombers to attack the houthis but those are also the bombers that can carry what we call the Moab. It’s a very big. bomb capable of going. and hitting deep underground targets.
Closing Remarks
So when I look at these capabilities, the US is aligning a military capability. that can be used. There are contingency plans that exist. you know, so we have to look at that capability. Israel actually helped us out a little bit when they attacked Iran.
Uh, we had those, uh, missile exchanges and and attacked exchanges. between Israel and Iran. The most capable. air defense. assets that Iran had now. Iran’s trying to get those resupply from Russia, but but when you look at that, that takes down part of the air defense umbrella that any air campaign would have to use and this would be a campaign, Josh.
Not 1 day of strikes. We’re talking days if not weeks of strikes to ensure you destroyed that entire capability. The White House requested a fresh Analysis of Middle East Developments following the Rafah operation.
Final Thoughts on Regional Stability
So the administrator Ations talking tough. It’s trying to set up deterrence. And I think some of the messaging with the tax on the houthis is helping say we’re going to back up our our support but but you have to look at this. comprehensively.
not just an attack, but also in defense because what will happen is Israel will be targeted. and those other countries you mentioned earlier about taking their concerns into consideration. Saudi Arabia will be targeted UAE will be targeted.
our base is there will be targeted. So we’re not just talking the ability to attack offensively, but be prepared for Iran. counter-attacking, which it will do in this situation. That’s the question of how all of that would play out.
Sign-Off
Mark Chandler. Thank you so much as always for taking the time to join us here. Anything you want to add about anything developing there in the Middle East Before I Let You Go. Our Analysis of Middle East Developments indicates Iran is accelerating its nuclear program.
Josh. I I think you covered it all. This is a very complex situation. you know, and these talks as I said, let’s manage expectations. Uh, I I don’t want us to have to use military force but but when you look at Iran, getting a nuclear weapon. uh, you immediately put Israel at at risk, but you also put all of the other countries in the middle. Middle East at risk.
Potential Regional Arms Race
You could be looking at a regional arms race. It’s not like the other countries are developing nuclear weapons but let’s look at the the wealth that Saudi Arabia has they can go. buy a nuclear weapon from Pakistan. that may sound odd but but, their religious backing.
aligns them with 1 another and billions of dollars can get a weapon. So what happens when you have an unstable Radical. religious group. in Tyron with the nuclear weapon and their threat to use it. Then you get uh their enemy Saudi Arabia with a nuclear weapon.
Conclusion
What’s going to stop that escalation the old. uh Mutual assured destruction that kept the United States and Soviet Union from attacking 1. Experts presented their Analysis of Middle East Developments at today’s security briefing.
Another for decades may not be a play when you start to see how this would evolve so this is a critical time. to stop Iran from having those weapons. Create some sort of stability in the Middle East, perhaps and move forward under under more peaceful. Uh, benign conditions as benign as it can be in the Middle East, which is going to be hard to do.
Final Sign-Off
all right, and of course we’ll see how it plays out over the next several days. There are no man, thank you so much. Mark, as always for being here with us, we appreciate it.
Josh, you’re quite welcome and good luck today, covering all these moving Parts. Oh yeah, have a good day. you too. The latest Analysis of Middle East Developments suggests growing tensions in the Gaza conflict.
Return to Oman
And I do want to take you back out to this live image over. Oman as we know those talks are officially underway. According to Iran’s foreign ministry again, the White House saying these are direct talks on the nuclear program between uh, Steve witkoff there, The US Middle East Envoy, as well as officials in Iran Iran. Those saying this is an indirect talk Again, we’ll keep an eye as all of this.
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